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Dynamic Material Flow Analysis for Strategic Construction and Demolition Waste Management in Beijing

Dynamic Material Flow Analysis for Strategic Construction and Demolition Waste Management in Beijing
Mingming Hu
Ester van der Voet
Gjalt Huppes
Journal Article
Journal of Industrial Ecology, Volume 14, Issue 3, Pages 440-456
Of all materials extracted from the earth's crust, the construction
sector uses 50%, producing huge amounts of construction
and demolition waste (CDW). In Beijing, presently 35 million
metric tons per year (megatonnes/year [Mt/yr]) of CDW are
generated. This amount is expected to grow significantly when
the first round of mass buildings erected in the 1990s starts to
be demolished. In this study, a dynamic material flow analysis
(MFA) is conducted for Beijing's urban housing system, with
the demand for the stock of housing floor area taken as the
driver. The subsequent effects on construction and demolition
flows of housing floor area and the concurrent consumption
and waste streams of concrete are investigated for Beijing from
1949 and projected through 2050. The per capita floor area
(PCFA) is a key factor shaping the material stock of housing.
Observations in Beijing, the Netherlands, and Norway indicate
that PCFA has a strong correlation with the local gross domestic
product (GDP). The lifetime of dwellings is one of the most
important variables influencing future CDWgeneration. Three
scenarios, representing the current trend extension, high GDP
growth, and lengthening the lifetime of dwellings, are analyzed.
The simulation results show that CDW will rise, unavoidably.
A higher growth rate of GDP and the consequent PCFA will
worsen the situation in the distant future. Prolonging the lifetime
of dwellings can postpone the arrival of the peak CDW.
From a systematic view, recycling is highly recommended for
long-term sustainable CDW management.
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