Patterns of Iron Use in Societal Evolution by Müller, Daniel B. and Wang, Tao and Duval, Benjamin (2011)

Patterns of Iron Use in Societal Evolution

Title

Patterns of Iron Use in Societal Evolution

Author(s)

Daniel B. Müller

Tao Wang

Benjamin Duval

Year

2011

Type

Journal Article

Source

Environmental Science & Technology, Volume 45, Issue 1, Pages 182-188

DOI

10.1021/es102273t

Abstract

A dynamic material flow model was used to analyze the patterns of iron stocks in use for six industrialized countries. The contemporary iron stock in the remaining countries was estimated assuming that they follow a similar pattern of iron stock per economic activity. Iron stocks have reached a plateau of about 8−12 tons per capita in the United States, France, and the United Kingdom, but not yet in Japan, Canada, and Australia. The global average iron stock was determined to be 2.7 tons per capita. An increase to a level of 10 tons over the next decades would deplete about the currently identified reserves. A subsequent saturation would open a long-term potential to dramatically shift resource use from primary to secondary sources. The observed saturation pattern implies that developing countries with rapidly growing stocks have a lower potential for recycling domestic scrap and hence for greenhouse gas emissions saving than industrialized countries, a fact that has not been addressed sufficiently in the climate change debate.

More Information

http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es102273t

Data Visualizations

Global iron stocks (in use and reserves)

View visualization »

Patterns of Iron Use in Societal Evolution

Tags